Michael Adkins
Will inflation be a reason voters boot out Joe Biden? That is what Republicans and a fair share of Democrats believe. I can’t rule that out in my crystal ball for prognosticating the world of 2024. However, I am not convinced. Sure, of Americans polled recently 62% rate the U.S. economy as “very” or “fairly” bad compared to 34% who see it as “very” or “fairly” good. But those varied viewpoints are created by two principal factors: political affiliation and income levels. Those who are hyper-political see the economy as good when their man is in the White House and bad when it is occupied by someone from the opposing party. Therefore, when the media announces positive economic results, one side cheers and the other turns a deaf ear. One study revealed that this phenomenon is significantly greater among Republicans, by a factor of 50%. Democrats need not be concerned about that portion of the 62% who are Republicans. As the late Larry Gosset once told, me they wouldn’t “vote for Jesus Christ if he ran as a Democrat.” Democrats should, on the other hand, be very concerned about those who are independents. They, rather than Republican voters, will decide if the economy seals Joe Biden’s fate.
Regardless of one’s political affiliation, the economy will undoubtedly be viewed as soured when one’s wages do not keep up with inflation. It matters not to them that inflation has declined significantly in 2023. High prices are still taking a large chunk out of their earnings. Nor does it matter to them that wage increases this year are surpassing the rate of inflation, because virtually all that wage growth over inflation applied to those who got new jobs this year. That should worry the Biden Administration. But, on the other hand, polling also revealed that only 27% see inflation as our biggest problem. So, the crystal ball remains muddy for the 2024 Presidential election.
It is important that we get a clear understanding of the causes of the 2021-2023 inflation. This inflation’s origin, at least in this nation, was the Trump trade policies against China and the European Union. They led to higher consumer prices for imported goods. This inflation period was later birthed as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, which slowed the economies of every nation in the world. The vast slowdown and oh so slow recovery created an abyss of product shortages of every item imaginable. Once production slowly cranked up across the globe, supply shortages were already out of control. Hundreds, if not thousands, of cargo ships queued up waiting weeks, even months, for their turn to unload their goods. On a personal reflection, when I wanted painting done in 2022, I was told I could expect to wait months before the paint would arrive. Paint was not the only missing item. Gas and oil productions were greatly reduced and it took a long time before global oil companies returned to full production. You name any consumer good and there was a shortage.
Between the pandemic shutdowns and lack of consumer goods, pent-up demands built to a bursting point. Anyone with a modicum of knowledge of economics realizes what happens when demand greatly surpasses supply. Prices skyrocket. The Biden Administration eased our economic woes somewhat with its stimulus packages; however, it went a “bridge too far,” which poured fuel into inflation’s increase.
One of the most significant factors is the fact that the price increases from limited supply and high demand brought record profits to large corporations, who, rather than lowering prices as supplies caught up, kept their prices at high levels. If not for corporate greed, inflation would be no issue at all in 2024.
Michael Adkins is a former Chair of the Hancock County Democratic Party.
