Michael Adkins
The departure of President Biden and the naming of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate for President has turned the 2024 election on its head. A vast majority of voters clearly did not want either Biden or Trump on their respective tickets. Harris’s ascension was, therefore, a relief for millions of Americans. I notice the enthusiasm of Democratic voters has risen. That is important because there is validity to the old adage that Democrats fall in love with their candidates while Republicans fall in line. It is vitally important because Dems did not fall in love with Hillary Clinton in 2016, something I noticed at that year’s state Democratic Convention. Even then, she had over three million more votes than Trump. It is important also because there is considerable evidence that many Republican voters are not falling in line with Trump. I expect we will see a decline in straight-ticket ballots from Republicans this November.
Can Harris win the Presidency? She has two things working against her; she is not only a woman, but one of color. The latter may be more a more valid issue this time out than the former. The issue of reproductive rights has come to the fore uniting millions of women against Republican policy. The gender gap has changed somewhat this year. Men still lean heavily Republican, though perhaps not as significantly this year. But the women’s gap has widened further toward the Democratic Party.
There is one factor, far greater than any other, that favors Harris in this race. That factor is the GOP nominee himself. Rather than my telling you why I view Trump as a horrible person and candidate, allow me to share what a true conservative believes about him. Mark A. Wright, Executive Editor of the very conservative publication National Review lays the problem on the line far better than I can. Trump is, according to Wright, “very unpopular.” The Executive Editor opined that when the race was between Biden and Trump it was a choice between “probably senile” octogenarian Biden and “unpopular, definitely nuts, septuagenarian Donald Trump it seemed like the people would reluctantly go with Trump.” Wright pointed out what I mentioned earlier, that most of us wanted neither candidate. “The Democratic Party” wrote Wright, gave American another option, Kamala Harris.”
The National Review Editor reminded his conservative readers that, even at his peak of popularity, Donald Trump never exceeded 49% approval ratings. “And yet, he has carried on as though he was given a huge national mandate and enjoys majority public support when there is zero evidence for that proposition.”
Harris is enjoying a significant bump in the polls, even cutting the Trump lead in Texas to 5% from the 10% Trump lead over Biden. Trump whines the bump is because of national media bias. The conservative Wright adamantly disagrees. “Trump isn’t losing because Kamala Harris is being hyped by the press and fluffed up to kingdom come. He isn’t losing because the press is being unfair to him. He’s losing because he is a weak, unpopular, undisciplined candidate running at the head of a weak, minority electoral coalition.”
There is time yet for Trump to make gains and win. Let us pray he doesn’t for the sake of normalcy, decency and the democratic values we cherish.
Michael Adkins is a former Chair of the Hancock County Democratic Party.
