NEW PALESTINE — Preparing for future student enrollment figures some four to 10 years down the road is a tricky prospect when you consider the many variables beyond a district’s control. However, officials with the Community School Corp. of Southern Hancock County are making an effort to project the numbers as best they can.
Board members looked into a demographic study about growth in the district earlier this week during a special session school board meeting Tuesday afternoon. Dr. Jerome McKibben of Demographic Research LLC., shared what he called a forecast and not projections on future student enrollment.
“Demography is like a super tanker, where you spin the wheel five miles down the ocean and once you start turning you crank the wheel back, but the economy and things like transfer students, those are like speed boats, they’re all over the place and you’ve got to keep an eye on those things constantly,” McKibben said.
A deep dive into the student enrollment numbers and area demographics showed the board that while they are expected to have a larger number of high school students in a few years, enrollment figures should remain steady for the district over the next decade, meaning there is no need to construct another school building any time soon.
Assistant superintendent Bob Yoder told the board as they prepared to hear the presentation that any plans to construct a new building have to come four to five years out, which is why taking a hard look at demographics and enrollment numbers now is so important.
“It’s not just something we can say ‘Hey, by September we need something,’” Yoder said.
McKibben, who makes a living analysing student enrollment numbers and demographic trends, noted while demographic trends are different from transfer student trends and other variables, all the things together are important.
Like all districts in the state, McKibben noted that Southern Hancock loses many students to other districts but also attracts a steady flow of transfer students, giving them a solid and steady student base. Those things coupled with vouchers, charter schools, move-in and move-out families, home school, virtual learning, housing trends, mortgage rates, retirement demographics as well as death rates and other variables all have an impact on student enrollment.
Probably one of the biggest stats he shared was that only a third of the homes in the district actually have school-aged students despite the housing boom in the area.
McKibben warned the district they’ll see an influx of high school students due to current enrollment numbers (around 200 kids) by 2029. However, thanks to the new expansion project at New Palestine High School, the district pre-planned well and is on track to handle the growth and house around 1,500 students — the number expected.
After hearing the information, which included details about an expected decrease in preschool enrollment numbers, superintendent Lisa Lantrip told the board she would not recommend the district build another building just now. Instead, she suggested the board work on plans to expand New Palestine Junior High School, which is currently at capacity, and increase areas at Sugar Creek Elementary School, particularly the cafeteria, which is way too small.
“We want to make sure our kids are not over crowded and that we have enough space for everyone, but we don’t want to overbuild and that’s kind of where we are,” Lantrip said.
The junior high is the “pinch point,” Lantrip added, meaning they can not add any more programs until they expand the building.
“We can’t add teachers or programs because they’re full,” she said. “But, looking at this, I’m not sure that warrants building a new, great big school because we would end up having an empty school eventually.”
A long-term statement by McKibben warned student enrollment growth rates will slow over the next 10 years.
“By 2035, there will be more deaths in the state and nation than there will be births,” McKibben said. “The population will be dropping because of dropping birth rates.”
