WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Party has been clear since the day he announced he would make another run for the White House 14 months ago. It can be seen in the party’s ideological shift even further to the right on cultural issues and, especially, on immigration policy.
Iowa Republicans were a clear reflection of that on Monday night, delivering the former president an emphatic victory. They channeled his anger, and his view that basically everything President Joe Biden has done has been a “disaster.” About 9 in 10 voters said they want upheaval or substantial change in how the government operates, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in the caucuses.
As clear-cut as his win was, though, Iowa has not historically played the role of kingmaker in the Republican nominating process. New Hampshire’s voters don’t take their cues from Iowa.
Here are some key takeaways:
AN INCUMBENT CAMPAIGN
This was the least suspenseful Iowa caucus in the last 20 years because Trump has essentially been running as an incumbent. He’s convinced many Republicans he didn’t really lose the 2020 election to Biden, repeatedly making false claims, and has dominated the race the way someone still in office does.
He traveled sparingly to the state, holding a modest number of rallies. He spurned candidate debates. He chose to appear at court hearings as a defendant in his legal cases in New York and Washington rather than to campaign in Iowa.
The former president, who remains the party’s dominant favorite, clearly wants to move on to the general election as quickly as possible.
TWISTS AND TURNS AHEAD
Inevitable can be a dangerous word, especially in New Hampshire, which holds its primary in eight days.
New Hampshire has famously delivered upsets in both parties. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley quipped that New Hampshire “corrects” Iowa. George W. Bush felt New Hampshire’s sting in 2000 when Senator John McCain defeated him. So did former vice president Walter Mondale when Senator Gary Hart of Colorado scored an upset in the Democratic race in 1984.
With its more moderate, highly educated electorate, New Hampshire presents Trump’s rivals with possibly their best opportunity to slow his march. Haley is hoping for a win there or at least a very strong showing, and after that comes a political lull — with the next major competitive race in South Carolina on Feb. 24.
But plenty can happen during that time. The U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 8 is scheduled to hear arguments in a case challenging whether a constitutional clause banning those who “engaged in insurrection” from holding office applies to Trump. The high court may also weigh in on whether presidential immunity protects Trump from federal charges for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss.
The criminal trial in that case is scheduled to start on March 5 — Super Tuesday — when 14 states vote in the presidential nominating process. Trump’s strength among Republican voters is beyond dispute, but the road is long and could be bumpy.
IT’S NOT THE ECONOMY
Iowans had something on their minds, but it wasn’t jobs, taxes or business regulations.
About 4 in 10 caucusgoers said immigration was their top issue, compared to 1 in 3 picking the economy, according to VoteCast. Other priorities like foreign policy, energy and abortion ranked even lower.
Indeed, about two-thirds of caucusgoers said they felt their finances were holding steady or improving. But the voters still want major changes — 3 in 10 want a total upheaval of how the federal government runs while another 6 in 10 want substantial changes. As for the criminal charges against Trump, 6 in 10 caucusgoers don’t have confidence in the U.S. legal system.
It adds up to a portrait of a slice of the electorate eager to challenge core democratic institutions in the U.S.
DESANTIS DISMAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT
Flush with more than $100 million in cash and fresh off a blowout reelection victory, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis entered the 2024 Republican presidential contest projecting himself as the heir to a MAGA political brand that a diminished Trump could no longer effectively carry.
Reality soon intruded.
Eight months and tens of millions of dollars later, DeSantis appears to pose little threat to the former president.
Despite more than $55 million in pro-DeSantis advertising spending, the Florida governor was instead locked in a tight race for second place with Haley.
He has been dogged by negative stories about profligate spending, including DeSantis’ preference for flying private planes.
As the trope goes, candidates don’t drop out of political races because they lose — they drop out because they run out of money.
THE EDUCATION DIVIDE
More than half of Haley’s voters had at least a college degree and roughly half of DeSantis’ did, according to VoteCast. But only about 2 in 10 of Trump’s did.
Education has been a major dividing line among white voters during the Trump era. Iowa confirms what polling has indicated during the primary — that the education divide is also splitting the GOP.
That hints at a possible weakness for Trump in November, should he be the nominee. A greater share of the voting public has at least a bachelor’s degree now than in 2016, and that share rises every year as degrees become more popular.
Another indication of vulnerability for Trump came in the suburbs, which tend to have the highest levels of education. Only about 4 in 10 caucusgoers there supported him. The suburbs were pivotal in Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump.
RAMASWAMY PUNCHED HIMSELF OUT
Abrasive, often grating and very online — Vivek Ramaswamy’s quixotic bid for the White House has come across as a millennial distillation of Trump’s MAGA movement.
Ramaswamy rapped along to verses of Eminem, delighted in trolling his rivals and often sought to out-Trump Trump with his rhetoric. That performative aspect helped the wealthy 38-year-old entrepreneur gain considerable attention in the early days of the campaign.
But it also proved to wear thin, perhaps summed up best when former New Jersey governor Chris Christie called him the “most obnoxious blowhard in America” during a debate.
As returns from Iowa’s caucus posted, Ramaswamy trailed not only Trump, but also Haley and DeSantis. He was struggling to reach double digits.
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