INDIANAPOLIS — We all knew this election was going to be about HIM. So what happens to Indiana’s down-ballot candidates if President Trump’s reelection bid collapses?
There is mounting evidence that a Democrat tsunami is forming. CNN/SSRS had Joe Biden with a 16-point lead nationally, 57-41%, on Monday, Oct. 12, coming on the heels of the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll Sunday that had Biden up 53-39%. The CNN poll revealed 69% don’t trust what the White House is telling the public about the president’s health.
Why is Trump collapsing?
First, he bombed in his first debate with Biden. Then he tested positive for COVID after months of downplaying its impacts. The White House has obfuscated the timelines of when he last tested negative and first tested positive, with rampant speculation that he knew he was infected and contagious at his debate with the 78-year-old Biden. Trump showed up late and ducked taking the required COVID test.
Unlike other presidents who might have been in a position to receive some sympathy during a hospitalization, voters are reacting to the cavalier attitudes Trump and the White House have exhibited for months, from the flouting of medically prescribed protocols (like wearing masks) to packing Rose Garden and MAGA rallies with supporters, with dozens contracting the disease.
Trump sucks the oxygen from all other races.
Let me put it another way: If any governor, mayor, university president or corporate CEO had acted in such a reckless, chaotic manner, their board of trustees would have said, well, “You’re fired.”
The last CBS Battleground Tracking Poll had President Trump with a 10-point lead in Indiana, 54-44% in late September. But Indiana Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer declined to release polling information on the Trump/Biden race last week after revealing gubernatorial numbers (Gov. Eric Holcomb at 60%, Democrat Woody Myers at 21% and Libertarian Donald Rainwater at 7%). Asked if Holcomb would out-perform Trump, Hupfer said, “It’s too early to tell. It’s certainly a possibility.”
When early voting began Oct. 6 in the state, long lines were reported in downtown Indianapolis and in Porter, Hamilton, Vigo and Bartholomew counties.
There’s a reason why new House Speaker Todd Huston is running TV ads in his rematch against Democrat Aimee Rivera Cole. It’s inoculation for what appears to be the building Blue Wave.
Predicting wave elections in the Donald Trump era has been dicey. We thought we saw a blue tsunami developing in the early summer of 2016, and again in the “Access Hollywood” weekend on the eve of the first Trump/Clinton debate, but this is different. Trump is facing Joe Biden and not the much-hated Hillary Clinton.
The way the current congressional and Indiana General Assembly maps are drawn gives Indiana Republicans a life raft. My newsletter, Howey Politics Indiana, has only the 5th Congressional District race between Democrat Christina Hale and Republican Victoria Spartz in the “tossup” zone, along with five Indiana Senate seats (in Indianapolis and LaPorte) and five suburban Indiana House Districts. So at this writing, Trump’s meltdown looks like it will have a limited down-ballot impact.
If President Trump craters at the top of the ticket, the problem for Democrats is that gubernatorial nominee Woody Myers has been an anemic fundraiser, giving Gov. Eric Holcomb’s reelection chances an enhanced status and raising a potential bulwark against down-ballot carnage.
While Myers reported his first large donation since mid-July on Oct. 1 (three totaling $12,000), he has actually been out-raised on that front by the Libertarian Rainwater, who reported receiving another $15,000 from a California man on Oct. 1.
Republican sources tell me that while Trump won’t carry Indiana by the points he did in 2016, he’ll likely come in with a six- to eight-point plurality. Trump’s self-inflicted problems will fester more prolifically in the swing states.
Brian A. Howey is publisher of Howey Politics Indiana at www.howeypolitics.com. Find Howey on Facebook and Twitter @hwypol. Send comments to [email protected].
